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經濟學人:妙招還是蠢招--美國暗殺伊朗將領(3)

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Still more threatening is Iran’s nuclear programme. Mr Trump pulled America out of the agreement with Iran, signed in 2015 with six world powers, which limited its ability to get a bomb. He argued that he would be able to negotiate a better deal which also took in Iran’s non-nuclear regional activities—a proposal he repeated in his press conference this week. Last summer there was speculation that Iran was ready to talk. But that now seems out of the question, possibly for a long time. Indeed, on January 5th Iran said it would no longer abide by any restrictions on the enrichment of uranium. It has every reason to indulge in nuclear brinkmanship not only as a bargaining counter against America, but also because, were Iran to get the bomb, it would permanently oblige America to change its calculations about using military force against it.

更有威脅性的是伊朗的核計劃。特朗普讓美國退出了與伊朗的協議,該協議是2015年與六個世界大國簽署的,限制了伊朗獲得核彈的能力。他認為他能夠通過談判達成一項更好的協議,同時也包括伊朗的無核地區活動——他在本周的新聞發布會上重復了這一提議。去年夏天,有人猜測伊朗準備談判。但現在看來,這是不可能的,可能很長一段時間都不可能。事實上,1月5日,伊朗表示將不再遵守任何限制鈾濃縮的規定。它完全有理由沉迷于核邊緣政策,這不僅是美國討價還價的籌碼,也是因為,如果伊朗獲得核彈,它將永久迫使美國改變對其使用武力的計劃。

Iran’s nuclear programme.jpg

The lack of an American strategy for negotiation means that the general’s killing has reduced America’s Iran policy to extreme sanctions accompanied by an ill-defined threat of massive retaliation if the regime misbehaves. Yet, starving Iran into submission is unlikely to work—other regimes have resisted American pressure for longer. There is no path to the peace Mr Trump this week said he wanted. Indeed, because America’s red lines are unclear, the danger of blundering into war remains.

由于缺乏美國的談判策略,這位將軍的死意味著美國對伊朗的政策將會受到極端的制裁,同時如果伊朗政權行為不端,美國還會威脅進行大規模的報復。然而,讓伊朗忍饑挨餓以使其屈服是不太可能奏效的——其他政權抵制美國壓力的時間更長。特朗普本周表示,他想要的和平之路是不存在的。事實上,由于美國的紅線還不明確,美國陷入戰爭的危險依然存在。
Meanwhile, sanctions and deterrence will gradually become less potent, because they always do. If America wants its approach to be sustained, the price could well be repeated rounds of sanctions buttressed by sustained military counters to Iranian aggression—and an aerial campaign if Iran appears about to get the bomb. Is Mr Trump prepared for that? Are his successors?
與此同時,制裁和威懾的效力將逐漸減弱,因為它們總是如此。如果美國希望自己的做法能夠持續下去,其代價很可能是在對伊朗侵略的持續軍事反擊的支持下,對伊朗實施一輪又一輪的制裁——如果伊朗似乎要獲得核彈,就會發動空襲。特朗普準備好了嗎?他的繼任者們準備好了嗎?
The wrong place at the wrong time
在錯誤的時間,錯誤的地點
Both Barack Obama and Mr Trump realised that turmoil in the Middle East consumes American resources and attention that would be better focused on Asia. Mr Obama tried to negotiate his way out of the region and failed. Mr Trump is trying to bully his way out instead, but he is likely to fail, too—because his strategy towards the regime in Tehran depends on America being present in the Middle East to contain Iran and maintain deterrence. The dramatic assassination of General Suleimani may look like a gamble that has paid off in the short term. Unfortunately, it has not solved America’s Iran problem.
巴拉克•奧巴馬和特朗普都意識到,中東的動蕩消耗了美國的資源和注意力,而這些資源和注意力更應該集中在亞洲。奧巴馬曾試圖通過談判走出該地區,但以失敗告終。特朗普正試圖以恐嚇的方式擺脫困境,但他也可能失敗——因為他對德黑蘭政權的戰略依賴于美國在中東的存在,以遏制伊朗并保持威懾。對蘇萊曼尼將軍的戲劇性暗殺可能看起來像是一場賭博,在短期內獲得了回報。不幸的是,這并沒有解決美國的伊朗問題。

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